With the most recent El Toro Loco Opening Day Meltdown®, I'm sure Cub fans, bloggers, and sportswriters alike are screaming that the Cubs should have traded Zambrano this offseason, "while he still had some value." Despite the poor outing yesterday, I couldn't disagree more, for a couple of reasons:

First of all, Zambrano always sucks on Opening Day. In six Opening Day starts, he's won once. That win came last year and preceded the worst season he's posted as a Cub since joining the rotation. As exciting as it is to have baseball back, let's try to remember that Opening Day is one game. Out of 162 games. Let's take a look at some stats (Yay, stats!):




2005: 14-6, 3.26 ERA Opening Day 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8K Cubs defeat Dbacks 16-6 Rusch WP

2006: 16-7, 3.41 ERA Opening Day 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5K. Cubs defeat Reds 16-7 Ohman WP

2007: 18-13, 3.95 ERA Opening Day 5 IP, 5ER, 5 BB, 2K Reds defeat Cubs 5-1

2008: 14-6, 3.91 ERA Opening Day 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB, 0K Brewers defeat Cubs 4-3

2009: 9-7, 3.77 ERA Won Opening Day 6 IP, 1ER, 3 BB, 6K Cubs defeat Astros 4-2

2010: 0-1, 54.00 ERA Opening Day 1.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 BB, 1K Braves destroy Cubs 16-5

What does all that mean? Nothing, except to show that Opening Day has zero connection to how a player performs the rest of the year. Big Z has a 6.99 career ERA on Opening Day and a career ERA of 3.55 total. So obviously the Cubs should trade him, right? Because he pitches lousy the first day of the year, that negates everything after, right? As a team, the Cubs are 3-3 in Zambrano's Opening Day starts. So half the time, they've won anyway. But by all means, let's tar and feather Carlos.

Secondly, whenever Carlos implodes on Opening Day, one of the comments I always hear is that Zambrano isn't a "big game pitcher". That he can't handle pressure. Again, I have to disagree. I would contend that Opening Day doesn't really constitute a "big game" or a pressure situation. Sure, it's the first game of the year. Yes, you want to win it, but as a team, you should want to win every game. To me, there really isn't a difference in pressure between Game 1 or Game 85. Since Zambrano became the "ace" of the staff, the Cubs have been to the playoffs twice. In 2007, Carlos dominated the Diamondbacks for six innings, allowing one run while striking out eight and walking one. The Cubs' bullpen lost the game. In 2008, Carlos faced the Dodgers, and despite not having his best stuff, he pitched 6.1 innings, struck out seven, and walked only two while surrendering seven runs, only three of which were earned. If you recall, the Cubs defense totally fell apart behind Z in that game. Maybe my recollection is different, but I don't recall him falling apart, I remember him toughing it out, stepping up when it counted, and trying to keep his team in the game. He also has a pretty nifty no-hitter under his belt. Pretty hard to throw one of those if you can't handle pressure.

I still believe that Big Z is going to have a big year this year. He has only lost one game so far, albeit in spectacular fashion. Let's wait and see where he's at by the All-Star Break before throwing him under the bus or making plans to ship him out somewhere. Remember: he is a nut, but he's our nut.